HSPI Event: "Jihad Joe" Book Launch

HSPI Event: "Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go To War in the Name of Islam" Book Launch

Tuesday, May 24, 2011 from 10:30 AM - 12:00 PM (ET)

The George Washington University - Elliott School
1957 E St NW
Seventh Floor
Washington, DC 20052

Or join via webinar - register here:

http://www.gwumc.edu/hspi/events/jihadjoePRF405.cfm

UK on Highest Alert in 10 Years for Irish Dissident Attacks

As the Queen of England prepares to visit Ireland tomorrow morning, the country is in its highest state of alert in over 10 years.  This in light of last year's IRA bombing of a courthouse and ongoing threats to banks and courthouses throughout the region. 

Train stations and airports in London were on high alert today after authorities received a coded bomb message from dissidents, suspected members of the IRA. This is the first coded message received in 10 years.

What is behind these recent events and resurgence of the IRA?


Let's go back to February 17, 2010,. when a  250 pound bomb exploded in front of a court house in Newry, Northern Ireland in February.  Police received a message from the bombers and were able to clear the area just minutes before the device went off.

Takeaways from this bombing:

- Officials in Ireland knew that due to the sophistication of the bomb and other data not released to the public that the CIRA (Continuity IRA) and RIRA (Real IRA) are now sharing tactics and have "crossfertilized".

- Police were told the bomb was set to go off in 30 minutes, the actual explosion was 17 minutes after the call. Whether this was an attempt to also target first responders is unknown, but worthy of noting.

- This is the first large car bomb attack since the deadly Omagh attack in 1998 and the bombing of a police station in 2000.

- Other smaller attacks are taking place across Northern Ireland, including a live mortar left outside of a police station, and a car bomb that killed a police officer. The attacks are widespread and persistent.

Many attacks were foiled in Ireland in the last year, included a second bomb in Newry, set to go off in a major shopping district in last spring.

Last September, the RIRA. publicly blamed banks in the UK for their  financial crisis and threatened to target bankers. They are specifically targeting Barclays' Banks in the UK. 
 
A resurgence of the IRA is a concern.  The UK is a major thoroughfare for aircraft and cargo headed in and out of Afghanistan and Iraq and home to several U.S. military bases with thousands of personnel and family members.  It is a major tourist area for American citizens and a stopover for U.S. cruise lines

The IRA and FARC have a relationship that dates back to the late 1990s when they shared bomb building techniques. The relationship was brokered by Spain's ethno-separatist group, ETA. 3 IRA members were arrest in Colombia, traveling on falsified passports and with traces of explosives on their clothing.  The IRA has also been linked to HAMAS and Hezbollah.  Al Qaeda is active in England, the groups are operating in the same "space"

Unfortunately, with countries hyperfocusing on al Qaeda and its splinter groups, some terrorist factions like the IRA have regrouped, recruited and grown in strength under the radar.  We are resource constrained in terms of law enforcement and intelligence, therefore must strike a balance when countering threats from the 47 groups on the Foreign Terror list, domestic terror groups and radicalized Americans.  Hyper-focusing in any one direction could cause a dangerous blindspot.

The Hunt for Hamza bin Laden

bin Laden and son Umar Hamza, undated photo (Getty Images)

Pakistani officials report that during their questioning of bin Laden's widows, they learned his youngest son and close confidant, Umar Hamza bin Laden, has not been seen since the raid and was not accounted for as one of the dead or captured at the scene.  Based on surveillance video,  U.S. officials are confident that no one escaped prior to, during or after the raid.  Therefore, Hamza may have disappeared from the compound before the raid.  This raises interesting questions, but I will save those for another blog.

Hamza is somewhere between 18-22 years old, depending on the source, and dangerous.  In this 2005 video The Mujahideen of Waziristan, Hamza participates in an al-Qaeda assault. 

He is also known for his rants about Western societies, and wrote a poem praising the 7/7 London bombings.  Prior to her death, Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto publicly implicated Hamza of  the 2007 assassination attempt in Pakistan that killed 136 people and injured at least 450. The dead included at least 50 of the security guards from her PPP who had formed a human chain around her truck to keep potential bombers away, as well as six police officers.  This was a well planned, brazen operation. 

On 5 May, STRATFOR reported a source has indicated "Umar Hamza is focused on recruiting minors with low IQs or with mental disabilities or those who come from broken homes. The jihadist group is especially intent on boosting recruitment in the West African state of Mauritania, where a jihadist presence has reared its head in recent months and where poverty and homelessness among children is high."

Certainly the use of children and mentally ill in Jihadist suicide bombings is nothing new - we've seen the tactic employed in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan.   This is a form of asymmetric warfare that exploits an area of vulnerability with our troops and first responders.  Therefore, we need to train and otherwise prepare for operations employing children, the mentally and physically challenged, and the elderly.  We can expect these tactics not only overseas, but possibly here in the States. 

As a side note:  if you want to get involved in the grassroots effort to remove Jihadist videos from You Tube,  please file a protest against this channel:    http://www.youtube.com/user/313mujahideen

While the debate goes on about the Internet and whether it should be patrolled and/or controlled, there is a difference between freedom of speech and hateful speech that recruits, incites violence, and glorifies killing.  Why should we sit back and allow our First Amendment be used against us by the enemy when these videos clearly exceed the law and reside on a U.S. hosted website?  Take a look at the subscribers to this channel, visit their sites.  Read the comments posted below the videos.  Would we allow a U.S. extremist group to post these kinds of unrestrained rants on YouTube that call for the violent killing of a specific nationality, race or religion? Something to consider.

DHS Statement on Threat to Rail System

A possible plot to attack our rail system on this year's 10th anniversary of 9/11 was found in items retrieved from bin Laden's compound.  The notes included specific instructions to cause derailments by tampering with the tracks.

Train security received extra focus after the arrest of  Najibullah Zazi and disruption of his backpack bomb plot against the New York train system on 9/11/09.  This operation led to increased screening at major train stations around the country, including random bag checks and extra security.  Perhaps in response to Zazi's failed operation, bin Laden and al Qaeda developed the train derailment plot in Feb 2010.   Here is the DHS statement, not much here but at least acknowledging concern. 

"DHS issued an intelligence message May 5 to its federal, state, local and tribal partners about potential Al-Qa'ida contemplation in February 2010 of plots against the U.S. rail sector. For the same reason, the Transportation Security Administration will issue a bulletin to rail sector stakeholders. We have no information of any imminent terrorist threat to the U.S. rail sector, but wanted to make our partners aware of the alleged plotting; it is unclear if any further planning has been conducted since February of last year.
We want to stress that this alleged Al Qa’ida plotting is based on initial reporting, which is often misleading or inaccurate and subject to change. We remain at a heightened state of vigilance, but do not intend to issue an NTAS alert at this time. We will issue alerts only when we have specific or credible information to convey to the American public. Our security posture, which always includes a number of measures both seen and unseen, will continue to respond appropriately to protect the American people from an evolving threat picture both in the coming days and beyond.
Since Sunday, DHS and its partners have taken a number of actions, including but not limited to: reviewing protective measures for all potential terrorist targets, including critical infrastructure and transportation systems across the country; deploying additional officers to non-secured areas at our nation’s airports; and identifying any new targeting rules that should be instituted to strengthen the ways we assess the risk of both passengers and cargo coming to the United States.
As always, we urge our state, local, tribal and private sector partners, as well as the general public, to remain vigilant and report any suspicious activity to federal, state or local law enforcement."

DHS statement

Why "Geronimo" was the Perfect Code Name for bin Laden

I find it very interesting that the code name "Geronimo" was used for bin Laden in the recent operation that resulted in his death.  In two previous blogs, I made reference to a recent book which drew parallels between bin Laden and Geronimo, who was the "Nant’an", or spiritual leader of the Apache Nation.  I have re-posted the relevant portion of my blog below and provided a link to the original, which also discusses why he would never be taken alive.

From my  blog, Feb 16, 2011:

Like many emergent organizations, al Qaeda and its offshoots are leaderless, yet high performing. In the book The Starfish and the Spider: The Unstoppable Power of Leaderless Organizations, the authors state the reason al Qaeda became so powerful is that bin Laden never assumed a traditional leadership role of the organization.

The book uses a very applicable illustration, discussing how the Apache Indians managed to hold off the Spanish Army for over 200 years. They had no Chief; instead, they had a Nant’an, a spiritual and cultural leader. He led by example and had no positional or coercive power. The Apaches followed him because they wanted to, not because they had to. Geronimo was a Nant’an, and although he was never in an official leadership position, he had great power and many wanted to take up arms and fight next to him.

Another reason the Spanish Army could not defeat the Apaches is attributed to the way the Apaches were organized – power was spread out and the organization was decentralized. A raid on a Spanish settlement could be planned, organized, and executed in three different places. In fact, attacks by the Spanish made the Apaches stronger, and they became even more dispersed and decentralized.

Ori Brafman, Rod A. Beckstrom The Starfish and the Spider: The Unstoppable Power of Leaderless Organizations (Portfolio Publishers, 2006)

We now realize the military principle of decimation, or lopping off the top 10% of the organization, will not result in the demise of al Qaeda. In fact, according to a landmark RAND study entitled "How Terrorist Groups End" - the military solution is only effective 7% of the time. More effective are the microlevel changes - the small course corrections and engagements that lead to overall success.

~~~~~~

Now that he is dead, bin Laden is no longer al Qaeda's Nant'an, or spiritual leader.  However, al Qaeda will go on since its true leader emerged post 9/11:  the radical ideology itself.

This battlefield really lies in the hearts and minds of the Jihadists, and it is there we will find our victory.

http://jennihesterman.blogspot.com/2010/03/bin-laden-is-irrelevant.html