Lessons From The Oregon "Tree Lighting Ceremony" Plot

The arrest of Mohamed Osman Mohamud, 19, a Somali-born U.S. citizen who sought to detonate a bomb in Portland, Oregon at a packed public Christmas-tree-lighting ceremony, was yet another in a string of successful FBI operations this year to stop the lone wolf domestic radicalized Islamist terrorist.  This is the biggest threat to our country - lone citizens (or very small groups) in our communities who become radicalized and then target the homeland.  I've pulled out the following key take aways from this case:

- Mohamud was an average U.S. teen from a good family. Unfortunately,  he was influenced by radical material on the internet -- al Shabaab continues to use Facebook and YouTube as a way to recruit Somali Americans. Their first try at this recruitment technique was a success in Dec 2007 when they lured young men from Minneapolis away from their home Christmas Eve and flew them to Somalia to become suicide bombers.  At least 20 young men disappeared during that time period, recruited by al Shabaab.

Here we are, 3 years later, with al Shabaab using the exact same modus operandi. The difference this time?  The target was in our country, not abroad. 

You Tube is filled with recruiting propaganda. The jihadifanclub channel has scores of videos and over 100 subscribers and friends (each with their own stations filled with jihadi videos and sentiments).  Just read the comment section on these video sites and you will identify Americans who are radicalized and pro-jihad. The jihadifanclub proclaims:

This Channel is dedicated to the Muslim youth! Don't waste the best years of your life (your youth) watching movies, playing video games and shopping. Use the strength that you have in your youth to push for change by fighting in the way of Allah (swt) against the evils of oppression and disbelief! Don't be foolish by waiting until you are old to fight in the way of Allah (swt) because it may be too late. 

It is time for some international protocol and laws governing the world wide web so we can collectively bring down these recruitment sites.  A curiosity seeker is presently just two clicks from effective recruitment tools.

- Mohamud told the FBI Portland was his target - he said that he wasn't worried about U.S. security getting in his way because law enforcement does not "see it as a place where anything will happen. People say, you know, why anybody wants to do something in Portland, you know. It's on the west coast, it's in Oregon; and Oregon's like, you know, nobody ever thinks about it."  A good reminder that NYC, DC and LA aren't the only cities in the cross hairs. This year, we've had plots against Houston, Chicago, and other smaller suburban areas. Our lone wolves themselves were living in very small communities where they went about their business of training, collecting materials and building bombs undetected.

- This is the second terror plot in Portland; the "Portland 7" were arrested in 2002 when they attempted to join al Qaeda and started their own jihad training. It is interesting to note that one of the group, Maher "Mike" Hawash has already been released from prison. Which leads me to my next point... 

Who is watching Hawash? Do we have the resources to lay eyes on him, the other Portland 7, the Lackawanna 6, the Ft Dix group, and Jihad Jane? They will all be out of prison in the next 2-7 years. When are we going to establish our U.S. deradicalization program for our citizens who serve their jail sentence and are released to the public?  I will repost my comments from an earlier blog in case I have new readers who might have some influence in getting this ball rolling:

Our government must immediately start planning for a rehabilitation facility for radicalized U.S. citizens who will be eventually released from the prison system.

- There must be a deradicalization process for these U.S. citizens before they are allowed to return to society
- This program should consist of theologians, psychologists, sociologists
- The Saudi model of rehabilitation provides a good start but is not perfect, even after 7 years in business
- There should be a "step down" process between incarceration and return to society-recall several detainees released from Guantanamo Bay returned with a vengeance and now lead al Qaeda cells

It should be noted that a key element in the jihadist's return to society is support from the community to make sure they don't return to their old ways.  Is America ready? Shouldn't we have a database by zipcode like we do for sex offenders?  Do we have enough law enforcement resources to monitor released jihadists in addition to working myriad cases such as this one with Hawah?

For now, we have to rely on our overtasked, under-resourced law enforcement community to discover plots hidden in our communities, unravel them, collect enough evidence for prosecution -- then keep watch over suspected jihadists and those released back to the community. 

Would it be much easier to kill effective recruiting sources such as the internet, and have a system to return these Americans to society when they have disavowed the call of jihad?

Read the Nov 2010 Special Edition Al Qaeda "Inspire" Magazine Here

Cover of Nov 2010 Inspire Magazine

http://info.publicintelligence.net/InspireNovember2010.pdf

NOTE  - If you are looking for the JANUARY 2011 INSPIRE - click here!
 http://jennihesterman.blogspot.com/2011/01/read-al-qaedas-recent-inspire-here.html


Click on the link above to read the latest issue of al Qaeda's magazine in which the group takes credit for the downing of a UPS plane in Dubai and explains "Operation Hemorrhage." Analysis forthcoming, wanted to post this link  soonest - download the document before it disappears.

On Page 16

Know Thy Enemy: Saif al-Adel, bin Laden's Appointee to Run AQ Terror Operations Against the West

We say to those who want a quick victory, that this type of war waged by the Mujahideen employs a strategy of the long-breath and the attrition and terrorization of the enemy, and not the holding of territory.                    - Saif al-Adel (2003)

Bin Laden recently appointed a new commander to oversee al Qaida's operations against the West -- Egyptian-born Mohammed Ibrahim al-Makkawi, or Saif al-Adel ("Sword of the Just").  Al-Adel is a familiar name and face to those in the counterterrorism world -- he is one of the FBI's most wanted terrorists and wanted in connection with the 1998 near simultaneous embassy bombings in Tanzania and Kenya that killed 223 and injured over 4,000.

Here is the rundown on al-Adel:

 - Was a special forces colonel in the Egyptian Army and a member of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad terrorist group. Played a role in the assasination of Anwar Sadat in 1981. Arrested in Egypt in 1987 for his plans to overthrow the government. Specifically, he wanted to either fly aircraft into the Egyptian parliament or drive explosive laden vehicles into the complex.

- Was either set free or escaped from prison.  Fled the country for Afghanistan.

- Fought with the mujaheddin against the Russians until their 1989 withdrawal. Then spends time traveling through various countries, including Lebanon where he trained with Hezbollah and learned bomb building techniques.

- Reappears in 1993, when he helps establish a terrorist training camp in Somalia. Trains and equips the tribal fighters involved in the battle of Mogadishu in 1993, where 19 U.S. soldiers were killed.  By now, he is also involved with al Qaeda. 


 - In the mid 1990s, Bin Laden becomes disillusioned with Zarqawi, seeing him as too ambitious and abrasive. Zarqawi asks bin Laden for money to start a training camp in Afghanistan, but his request is denied. al-Adel sees an opportunity to win favor and move up the AQ hierachy - he convinces bin Laden to give him $5000 to set up an al Qaeda training camp in Herat and his plan is set into motion.

- al Qaeda defector al Fadl testified that at al-Adel's training camp, Hezbollah operatives give explosives instruction to trainees, specifically on how to "blow up big buildings."

- In the spring prior to the 1998 embassy bombings, the Prime Minister of Sudan (al-Madhi) approaches the U.S. to discuss al Qaeda operative activity and terrorism threats in Africa. Unfortunately, the U.S. declines and later finds out that al-Madhi had files on the embassy bombers and had been following their travels in and out of the country. al-Adel is one of the masterminds of the embassy bombings. Two other plotters were worshipping at the Hamburg, Germany mosque with Mohammad Atta and another 9/11 hijacker.

- In early 2001, Zarqawi and al-Adel work together to start a new training camp near Herat. al-Adel is the go between between Zarqawi and bin Laden, who asked Zarqawi to come to him and take an oath of allegiance, but he refused.

- Interestingly, it is rumored that al-Adel did not approve of the 9/11 plan. He senses the U.S. would engage militarily in Afghanistan and did not want the Taliban to fight the war, or for the Americans to become an occupation force.

- In Oct 2001, al-Adel is present in Khandahar during a U.S. cruise missile attack in the opening days of the war. He witnesses the death of several close associates and their wives. His wife and 5 children are also in Kabul during the initial fighting in Afghanistan but are not injured.

- In Nov 2001, upon the death of Mohammed Atef, al-Adel moves up the al Qaeda hierarchy to #3, chief of military operations

- In 2002, Iran  puts al-Adel, his wife and 5 children and other terrorists under "house arrest", yet they continue to mastermind attacks in Riyadh and elsewhere. al-Adel is able to write several provocative documents while in Iran.

   -- Helped write the 112 page "Reality of the New Crusader's War", also known as "The Management of Barbarism",  which was given to al Jazeera in September of 2002. Document sought to justify al Qaeda's role in the 9/11 attacks.

   -- In 2004, published the first on-line terrorist manual entitled "The Base of the Vanguard" - it gave Jihadists tips on explosive devices, training, and encouraged the procurement and use of WMD.  Showing a level of sophistication, the manual and its two follow on editions were encrypted.

   -- The same year, he published the "The Al-Battar Military Camp" manual 

   -- In March, 2005, a Jihadi website publishes al-Adel's document "Al Qaeda's Strategy to the Year 2020"

    -- In 2007, excerpts from al-Adel's diary (recovered in a 2004 raid in Saudi Arabia) are introduced in the tribunal hearing of Ramzi Binalshibh.  Binalshibh was part of the 9/11 plot and in the U.S. attempting to obtain flight training to join Atta and the other terrorists. al-Adel's diary contained enough evidence regarding Binalshibh's participation to get him a conviction and life in prison.

In March of this year, Iran released al-Adel along with Iman bin Laden (Osama bin Laden's daughter), and senior al-Qaida operatives Suleiman al-Gaith and Mahfouz al-Walid. Iran swapped the terrorists for a Pakistan-based diplomat kidnapped by al-Qaida last year.

Al-Adel is now at large, whereabouts unknown. He is somewhat of an enigma - there are very few pictures of him to circulate, and no exact physical description of height, weight, disfigurements, etc. He has two birthdates: either April 11, 1960 or April 11, 1963. My guess is that he will go to Yemen or Somalia to interact with al Qaeda Arabian Peninsula and al Shabaab to recruit and train terrorists to attack the West.

(from multiple sources)

Kuwaiti Professor Abdallah Nafisi: AQ Should Bring Anthrax Through Mexico to Attack the U.S.

 

This video is from February 2009, but a must see.

Somali Pirates Big Pay Day - $9.5M

Somali pirates were just paid $9.5M for relinquishing the Samho Dream, a South Korean oil tanker that was capture in April and carrying $170M in crude oil from Iraq to the U.S. Pirates also received nearly $2.8M the same day for the Golden Blessing, a Singaporean flagged ship.

"We are now counting our cash," a pirate who gave his name as Hussein told Reuters news agency. "Soon we shall get down from the ship."

This high payout is very worrisome -  there are at least 25 more ships currently being held by pirates. Ship hijackings hit an all time high in 2010, and it is little wonder why with countries paying these exorbitant ransom demands.  Saudi Arabia paid at least $20M in May for the return of one if their oil supertankers.

There are 5 separate pirating groups in the region with over 1,000 actors, primarily consisting of fisherman. As their fishing livelihood in the Gulf was affected by increased pollution from passing ships, fisherman started the pirate trade as way to lash out against foreign ships and to raise capital. They were soon joined by ex-militiamen who were previously employed by clan warlords. They recruited some technical specialists for communications and GPS support.

The people of Somalia aren't necessarily against the pirating, as the money is an influx into their weak local economies. Business is booming - since January, pirates successfully boarded 43 ships with several events  terminated by the host country paying ransom, others in gun battles with U.S. and other warships in the region. Ship have been sunk, pirates killed, hostages rescued. It is an active, ongoing operation - and it is driving shipping costs up in the region and affecting charitable activities such as the U.N.'s World Food program - over 90% of their ships have to traverse the dangerous region and do so with heavy escort.

So far, the pirate attacks have been centered around ransom. However, some reports have the terrorist group al Shabaab (a al Qaeda affiliate) exacting profits from this activity. If countries pay ransom to the pirates, they should know that a portion of the money could very well be going towards the funding of al Qaeda attacks against the United States. Al Shabaab has already tried to strike in our borders and is actively recruiting Americans through the use of You Tube and Facebook

It is obvious the pirates don't care about the cargo on board, as they've seized vessels with $170M in crude oil or nearly worthless shipments of chains. A UN resolution concerning payout to hijackers would help so that countries don't independently feed the pirate's growing appetite for cash which may be going to al Shabaab.

Now that the pirates have perfected their trade, more nefarious actors could step in and ask their assistance, paying millions up front for a capture operation. A large ship, at full speed, could do an incredible amount of damage to important ports in the region. The jury is out as to whether an oil tanker, rigged with explosives, would explode if used as a incendiary device in a port, but perhaps it is possible.

As always, we can't just focus on how the bad guys are operating today - we need to think asymmetrically and get on the offensive in order to prevent future, perhaps catastrophic attacks.