Time to Change the Overall Threat Level to "High"

Why do we have this system if we aren't going to use it? The overall threat to our country has been "elevated" since August 2005. The overall threat to aviation - "high" since August 2006.  It was only "severe" once since 9/11, during that same month when officials uncovered a plot to bomb U.S. flights originating from the U.K. Even when the Christmas Day Bomber was nearly successful, the aviation scale didn't change. We should never assume a failed operation or unraveled plot is a "one off."  What if it is merely a dry run or a distraction from a larger operation?

Since 9/11, we've had over 55 domestics plots (by my count, and only what I can find in open source reporting).  Over half of those plots/operations were in the last 2 years.  The worst of which were in the last 12 months with Nidal Hassan, the Christmas Day bomber Abdumullatab, the Times Square Bomber Shahzad, NY subway backpack bomber Zazi, and now the would-be D.C. Metro bomber Ahmed.  Throw in terror plots in Texas and Illinois, Jihad Jane, the father/son team in North Carolina, the would-be synagogue attackers in NYC, the group that traveled to Pakistan for training. Now a shooter in D.C. that has 4 events under his belt - returning last night to the Marine Corps Memorial to punctuate his earlier attack.



It is time to be honest with the American people - the threat is growing in our country. Al Qaeda doesn't view  unsuccessful operations and foiled plots as failures -- but as learning opportunities. They are masters of observation and improve incrementally. They will push forward, undeterred, until the operation is a success.

We are responding predictably -- and they are approaching us asymmetrically. Therefore we have to use everything in our arsenal to counter the threat. Raising the alert scale to "High" is a good thing for the law enforcement and intelligence communities - here are some random thoughts as to why. 


-  By raising the alert, the American public would be snapped out of their catatonic state. Right now, Dancing With the Stars is more important than the fact we have terror cells and radicalized American Lone Wolves in our country that are preparing to move to operational stage.

- This wake up call immediately makes them force multipliers. Right now, the burden is solely on law enforcement and intelligence to watch for out-of-the-ordinary things and people. They think we have enough resources to do the job and don't need their help.

- The truth is, we need a public that engages in threat reduction, they should be on our team. After all, they are on the target list - why shouldn't they engage? And do so under our guidance?  To get average citizens on the detection and mitigation team, they first need to realize there is a growing threat. Then they need education on how to report and intervene. Otherwise, the blinders will be on. Citizens and business owners are certainly are seeing "things",  but if not put into the larger context, they can't help us. Consider this  - the plots we are currently unraveling are not coming from leads generated by the public. Hassan was at the range constantly for weeks, shooting at silhouette targets and working on his head shots. Zazi was buying cases of hydrogen peroxide from beauty parlors. Terrorists plan, they purchase things, they practice, they perform surveillance. There are opportunities to detect them, we need to exploit every avenue.

- After living in the UK on two separate occasions for almost 4 years total, I've seen firsthand how the British government handles terrorist threats. #1 - they tell their citizens. People don't panic, they still go about their business, riding the subway, flying, etc.  But they also become eyes and ears for law enforcement and they are savvy on how to handle the threat. It is part of their daily life. They are living with the threat, not dying from it - by "die", I mean hemorrhaging resources and living in fear.

- If we don't warn our citizens and a terrorist attack is successful, they will be over reliant on us for support.  We should tell them to prepare and educate themselves now. This should be done in a way that doesn't cause panic. But they need to know what "shelter in place" means in the event of a chem, bio or nuke event. They should have water, batteries, and nonperishable food to take care of themselves and their families in the event the power grid is hit, or we need to lock down a city in a Mumbai type of situation.

- If the advisory system never changes, it is a useless tool that could actually contribute to complacency. "Elevated" means a severe risk of terrorist attack yet you wouldn't know that by talking to the average person on the street. A recent poll indicated that terrorism is ranked last when it comes to the concerns of average Americans.

We have three major challenges with regards to fighting terror on our soil:  the public is not educated on the threat. They have no idea how to take care of themselves. And we are resource constrained, and won't be able to provide the support they will expect during an emergency.

The overall terrorist threat is "high" in our country. Either we need to use this advisory system -- or lose it.

Virginia Man Plotted Attacks on D.C. Metro - Thought He Was Working with al Qaeda

Farooque Ahmed, 34, a naturalized citizen of Pakistani descent, was arrested today on charges he worked with people he thought were al Qaida operatives to plan subway bombing attacks in the DC area.  The FBI was aware of his activities before the planning began and the public was never in danger. Ahmed lived in Ashburn, VA.

I was able to locate the court indictment, see it here for more details of the charges:
Ahmed Indictment

According to the report, the targeted sites included the Crystal City, Pentagon, Arlington Cemetery and Courthouse Metro stations.  In April, Ahmed started meeting with "al Qaeda" operatives and agreed to videotape the metro stations and a hotel. He drafted diagrams of the stations and gathered data regarding the best way to place and detonate the explosives. He was planning simultaneous attacks, a hallmark of an al Qaeda operation. If he is convicted, he will face up to 50 years in prison.

Our government must immediately start planning for a rehabilitation facility for radicalized U.S. citizens such as Ahmed who will be eventually released from the prison system. The Lackawanna 6 will be out of jail in a few years, along with many other radicalized Americans currently in the prison system.

- There must be a deradicalization process for these U.S. citizens before they are allowed to return to society
- This program should consist of theologians, psychologists, sociologists
- The Saudi model of rehabilitation provides a good start but is not perfect, even after 7 years in business
- There should be a "step down" process between incarceration and return to society-recall several detainees released from Guantanamo Bay returned with a vengeance and now lead al Qaeda cells


It should be noted that a key element in the jihadist's return to society is support from the community to make sure they don't return to their old ways.  Is America ready? Shouldn't we have a database by zipcode like we do for sex offenders?  Do we have enough law enforcement resources to monitor released jihadists in addition to working myriad cases such as this one with Ahmed?

Tough questions, but we should demand answers now.

Third Shooting in D.C. Area: Military Recruiting Office Targeted

FBI officials released a statement today regarding last week's overnight shootings at the Marine Corps Museum and the Pentagon  - the events are connected. A third shooting took place late Monday night or Tuesday morning at the Marine Corps Recruiting Station in Chantilly, VA. The recruiting office has been closed for renovation. Investigators point out the gunman is not targeting individuals, but targeting empty buildings in the middle of the night. In light of the shootings at the Pentagon and two Marine Corps related facilities, officials are enhancing security for this weekend's Marine Corps Marathon. Is this a radical jihadist inspired by the recent al Qaeda magazine, videos and letters from bin Laden? Is it a domestic terrorist? Lone wolf? Disgruntled military vet? Theories abound as investigators collect and analyze evidence. Please post your opinion on these incidents, I would be interested to hear your theories.

Shots Fired at The Pentagon, Marine Corps Museum: Inspired by "Inspire"?

At 0455 this morning, an unknown shooter targeted the Pentagon with a high velocity rifle firing 5-7 shots. Two of the bullets hit windows and shattered the outer pane, but did not penetrate the inside pane.

This follows a strange event over the weekend where an unknown shooter targeted the Museum of the Marine Corps outside of Quantico. Sometime between midnight Sat and early Sunday morning, 5 bullets were fired at the double paned glass at the museum's entryway. The shooter appears to have been some distance away, possibly on the opposite side of I-95 on a hill. 

Are these event unrelated? My guess is no. Why would a shooter target a building like the Pentagon when it is devoid of workers at 5AM? As a dry run.

Al Qaeda's Inspire Magazine, published last week, encouraged terrorists to target government workers in the DC area. One idea was on page 54 - driving a 4WD truck with sharpened blades of steel to "cut through bone" into a group of pedestrians. And to carry firearms to then "finish off the work."  On page 55, there is a discussion of using firearms to "knock off" government workers in a busy restaurant at lunch time. The article encourages the terrorist to take his time, plan and contemplate with 6 months to a year good pre-planning time period.


The pundits are saying if this is all al Qaeda can muster as an attack methodology, we're in good shape. I wholeheartedly disagree. Having lived in DC during the sniper attacks of 2002, I can unequivocally say these types of attacks terrorize the populace. It took three weeks to catch the shooters. An FBI employee was shot and killed in the parking lot of my Home Depot. Our schools were all locked down after the snipers targeted a little boy getting on his school bus and then sent a note to the media saying "your children aren't safe."  Other victims were killed while pumping gas, vacuuming a car, mowing grass, and sitting on a bench reading a book  The things we do every day suddenly turned into target opportunities for the bad guys and we were pumping gas from behind sheets and staying away from public transportation. At the Pentagon, we exited the building very quickly, and did not linger around entrances or in the parking lot. Few left the building for lunch and it was rare to see pedestrians.  The 2002 event proved that a few well placed shooters could easily bring our city to its knees. So can a few high speed truck attacks at sidewalk cafes at lunchtime.

Reading the Inspire magazine is a must. There are telling comments about the importance of financial attacks, the use of the press as a propoganda tool and the encouragement of jihadists to create WMD by cooking up a batch of botulin, ricin or cyanide. Al Qaeda may now be comprised of splinter faction, but in a way, that makes them more dangerous. No more ability to proactively follow the money trail, or penetrate an operation. The lone jihadist that is inspired by the writing of al Qaeda can undertake an attack without approval from higher ups and without training at a camp. Sleeper cells don't need to communicate with those abroad, so less of a chance of detection.

The ideology is where our battle lies -- the radical Islamist ideology holds al Qaeda together. How do we fight an idea, and one as consuming and powerful as the call to Jihad? We should start by really trying to understand it, and see us through the eyes of the enemy. A few book recommendations:

The Looming Tower: Al Qaeda and the Road to 9/11 (Lawrence Wright)
Milestones (by Sayyid Qutb)
Messages to the World: The Statements of Osama bin Laden

Stay vigilant!

Al Qaeda Releases Fall "Inspire" Magazine: Read it Here

 *
NOTE  - If you are looking for the JANUARY 2011 INSPIRE - click here!
 http://jennihesterman.blogspot.com/2011/01/read-al-qaedas-recent-inspire-here.html




Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has released their second issue of "Inspire" magazine, thought to be the brain child of Anwar al-Alwaki. Alwaki is a U.S. citizen and Imam who served as "counsel" to the 9/11 terrorists and Ft Hood murderer  Nidal Hassan, among others. The 74 page magazine was discovered today by the SITE organization. 

I am still reading through the magazine and will provide my thoughts soon, but wanted to get the link out as soon as possible as it is not easy to find on the web. Articles include "Proud to be a Traitor to America"written by an American Samir Khan;  "The New Mardin Declaration", by Alwaki; and an article called "Legitimate Demands 2" written by wanted American terrorist, Adam Gadahn. There are references to possible future operations such as cafe bombings in D.C.,  and a narrative supposedly written by bin Laden on page 10.  Please pass this link on, it is "safe" and hosted by archive.org. I recommend you download the PDF before it disappears.

Link to PDF file

Defiant, Unrepentant Faisal Shahzad Will Spend Life In Prison

This week in a Manhattan courtroom, Faisal Shahzad pleaded guilty to one count of attempted use of a weapon of mass destruction and nine other lesser counts. In turn, he received a life sentence for his attempt to detonate an explosive-laden vehicle in Times Square on May 1st. Shahzad, a naturalized U.S. citizen, was sponsored and trained by the Pakistani Taliban, which now resides on the list of State Department designated terror groups. The trial was held in Manhattan and fortunately, didn't turn into a propaganda fest for radical Islamists. Perhaps this is a good model for the pending trial of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed who remains in custody at the Guantanamo Bay detention facility.

Shahzad's comments to the judge were publicized and a good reminder to U.S. citizens of the determination of this enemy:

“Brace yourself, because the war with Muslims has just begun.”  “Consider me only a first droplet of the flood that will follow me.”

“The past nine years, the war with Muslims has achieved nothing for the U.S. except it has awakened Muslims from their slumber.” “We are only trying to defend our religion, our people, our honor and our land. If you call us terrorists for doing that, then we are proud terrorists, and we will keep on terrorizing until you leave our land and people at peace.”

Shahzad praised Osama bin Laden and predicted the establishment of a Muslim caliphate. He compared bin Laden to the 12th century Muslim leader Saladin, who recaptured Palestine from European crusaders.

“And so it’s very clear for us Muslims, either we are with the mujahedeen or we are with crusading, losing Christians,” Shahzad said. “There is no in between. Blessed be the immigrants and the leader Sheikh Osama Bin Laden, who will be known as no less than Saladin of the 21st century crusade, and blessed be those who give him asylum.”

Business Week Article 

The U.S. v Shahzad court case is a wealth of information about the terrorist and this operation.First of all, Shahzad has a master's degree in business and worked as an accountant. He has a wife and two children, who are now living in Pakistan. He became a naturalized citizen last year.

With respect to his training in Pakistan with TTP, he stated they taught him:


"The whole thing; how to make a bomb,  how to detonate a bomb, how to put a fuse, how many different types of bombs you can make."

 Shahzad talks about how he went to Pakistan with the intention of joining the Taliban:

Well, there are two Talibans; one is Taliban Afghanistan, the other is Taliban Pakistan. And I went to join the Taliban Pakistan. THE COURT: I see. Has that always been there?  THE DEFENDANT: It recently -- they -- the organization was made -- was made like six years ago when the first time the Pakistan took a U-turn on the Taliban Afghanistan, and obviously the tribal area in Pakistan is the -- was the harboring for the mujahideen fighting in Afghanistan. So the Pakistan took a U-turn and they became allied with US and they went against the Taliban and start fighting and killing them. So during that time, the Afghan Taliban made a group to encounter the Pakistan government forces, and that's when Taliban Pakistan came into being. Six years ago, maybe.

Regarding  the funds needed for the operation:

I was there for 40 days. I got the training, five days. And I asked them for some cash 'cause I only had -- my cash was like 4,500 that I had with me when I was leaving, and I asked for some more cash because I had to do the whole operation here, so they gave me initially 4,900 something. So I came back with 8,000 something in cash, US, with 4,500 my cash and 4,000 their cash. And when I came back on February 2nd, I started -- started planning on the plan. So I started looking for a place first to rent and slowly got together what I think could make a bomb. During that time -- it took me from February up to end of April to do all that, find a place. I also required some more cash and I requested that from the Taliban, and they sent it to me, twice, once in March and the other time in end of April. So I got the cash, I worked on it, I made the bomb in a car, and I drove it to Times Square.

The cash transfers from TTP in Pakistan to Shahzad in the U.S. obviously happened off the radar and were below the reportable threshhold.

From the case files we also learn that Shahzad transported a loaded 9 mm Kel-Tec SUB 2000 semi-automatic carbine through Grand Central Station and then on a train from New York city to his home in Connecticut the evening of the failed bombing.

It is hard to feel happy about the successful prosecution of this case. We must remember that this operation was nearly successful, in which case Shahzad may have escaped and moved to operation #2, where he was planning to set off another bomb either at the Boeing Plant in Connecticut or again in NYC.  We've had many successes in the last year disrupting cells and plots, but the Christmas Day bomber and Shahzad got way to close for comfort.

Thankfully, Shahzad will spend the rest of his life behind bars. Others, like the Lackawanna 6  will soon be out of jail and back in society. Not every U.S. citizen-turned-jihadist will spend their life in jail, so we must make a plan now for their rehabilitation and release back to society. A program similar to the Saudi effort is needed in our country and time is of the essence.

Revisting the Lessons Learned from Mumbai

Recently, State Department officials alerted U.S. citizens to the potential for terrorist attacks in Europe. See the official release here:
State Dept Warning


This threat has been in the making for several months. Last December, I wrote about chatter on a jihadist website that was intercepted by intelligence analysts in the UK, who believed an attack was being planned for late 2010:

 
In an online discussion, one contributor suggested fighters could use automatic weapons to strike places such as nightclubs, sporting venues and Jewish centers. Another contributor invited suggestions for carrying out “guerrilla warfare” and proposed “a group of mujaheddin raid police stations and fire at them”. Another said: “Make sure that all those at the location are of age, that there are no children and so on. Insist on the locations and times where no Muslims or children are to be expected. “If machine guns are available, and explosive and expertise for [explosives] are not available, this is a good way ... The [Mumbai] operation is the ideal scenario for operations you are talking about.” A third contributor said targets should be “chosen in a studied manner”. He added: “In general, targeting economic joints and intelligence centres if possible has priority over police stations.”

In recent weeks, intelligence operatives in Pakistan became aware of planning for Mumbai-style attacks in Europe. Counterterrorism officials in the UK, France and Germany have been on high alert.  The Eiffel Tower was closed several times due to suspicious packages and/or people. German officials have posted snipers at official events. 

This is a good time to revisit lessons learned from Mumbai. On November 26, 2008, a small group of heavily armed men from the radical Islamist group Lashkar-e-Toiba, headquartered in Pakistan, attacked hotels, cafes, hospitals and train stations. At least 172 people were killed and the event brought the city to its knees. Many valuable lessons were learned from the event:

#1 - The terrorists accomplished significant pre-planning, including surveillance of the targets. They had hotel diagrams and were able to navigate emergency exits and back doors. In fact, the planning for the Mumbai attacks may have started a year or more before the actual event. This surveillance was not detected.

#2 - The terrorists entered the city by sea - they hijacked a fishing vessel, killed the crew, kept the captain alive long enough for him to navigate the ship into the harbor, then beheaded him. The terrorists then boarded two prepositioned inflatable boats and entered the city at two different points. A maritime assault was not anticipated. Most of our major cities have waterways, as do large cities in Europe.

#3 - Heavy resources were moved to the terrorists before the attack - money wired in by several people to different places, allowing for purchase of weapons and bomb building material. "Financial forensics" and stricter monetary transaction laws may have prevented this attack.

#4 - The terrorists were heavily armed. Weapons and ammo was preplaced in the hotels. The amount of firepower brought to this fight enabled the terrorists to dig in for 3 days.

#5 - The simultaneous, multiple attacks, by small fire teams of 2-4 men, were spread throughout the city and confused and overwhelmed law enforcement. The attacks were sequential, again, showing extensive planning. Law enforcement must train for simultaneous terrorist attacks that may overwhelm their communications networks.

#6 - The terrorists' purpose: to kill as many people as possible by hitting soft targets. We typically harden targets like headquarters buildings. All targets are on the table for this enemy: churches, schools, buses, hospitals. We must harden these soft targets in anticipation of attack.

#7 - The use of blackberries and encrypted satellite phones allowed for constant communication between the terrorists during the attack, as well as with their "handlers" in Pakistan. After hijacking the boat they used to approach the city, terrorists called their leaders for advice on how to kill the ship's captain. The handlers told them to slit his throat, and they did while on the phone call. Audio of the event was introduced as evidence in the trial of the lone surviving terrorist. This real time interaction between the operatives and their base increased the effectiveness of the attack. Knowing how to target, intercept, manipulate or kill the comm of the enemy is critical. Underestimating their sophistication is a mistake and creates blindspots in our planning and counterattacks.

#8 - Mumbai proved that use of WMD is not necessary to incite mass panic, confusion and fear. A small, heavily armed, well financed and trained group that is willing to die for their cause can inflict great damage.

If you want to further research the Mumbai terrorist attack, here are two great sources:

http://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/2009/RAND_OP249.pdf
http://www.heritage.org/Research/HomelandSecurity/bg2219.cfm

Al Qaeda has splintered into dangerous subgroups and cells. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is growing in strength and resources and presents the greatest threat. AQAP has already attempted several attacks in the U.S., thankfully all were thwarted or failed in execution.  The Pakistani Taliban was behind the failed Times Square attack in April and continues to plan operations to hit us at home, thus their recent designation by the State Department.

The bottom line is the enemy is patient and planning. We must fight complacency as time elapses between successful or attempted attacks. Our planning must be "active" and flexible to incorporate and mirror any subtle shifts in their tactics. We need the flexibility to redirect resources as needed to address and neutralize the threat. Understanding the command and control of a situation like Mumbai, if it happened in one of our major cities, is critical.

There is no need to panic or overreact at home or in Europe. The threat of terrorism is now part of our daily lives, and similar to other countries that have been battling separatist or religious terror for decades, our citizens must go about their daily business. They just need to be educated on the threat and reminded to stay vigilant.