U.S. Citizens and Terror Threat: CNN Poll Highlights Dichotomy

A recent CNN poll finds that although the fear of a terrorist attack is rising among our citizens, terrorism still rides the bottom of the list of the important issues facing our country -- along with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. 


Yes, only 1,023 adults were surveyed, a very small segment of our society. However they were chosen as a random sample, from across the country. 


Surely our national security is impacted by those things at the top of the list - for us to be a world power that is respected and feared by would-be enemies we need a strong economy, an educated populace and secure borders. 


It is a good sign that citizens sense the rising risk of an attack. Perhaps they will be more observant and report potential threats, and think more about preparedness for themselves and their families. 


Polls like this can be discouraging for those who dedicate their lives to the "bottom 10%" of the important issues list. But it doesn't really matter how the society we serve feels about the threat - we'll still protect, mitigate and provide first response should the bad guys get through. 


Our citizens enjoy their freedom and safety thanks to all of you. On Memorial Day, remember those who took an oath to serve their country and communities, and gave their life in the line of duty -- protecting the innocent and those who were blissfully unaware of the danger on their doorstep. 

_______________________________________ 

Which of the following is the most important issue facing the country today?

How likely is it that there will be further acts of terrorism in the United States over the next several weeks -- very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not at all likely?

Poll Results

Shocking Statistics: Apprehensions at the Border and our National Security

While investigating how a most wanted terrorist made his way from Mexico to Atlanta twice - just prior to 9/11 and again in 2004 - WSBTV in Atlanta obtained close hold documents from a congressional staffer with data concerning apprehensions at the border. This data was never released to the public, in fact when the TV station interviewed lawmakers who work security issues, they indicated it was the first time they'd seen the list. The list of countries with citizens attempting to get into the U.S. illegally is long and broken down into 4 documents (links at the bottom of this post) 

FY 07-09 - OTMs (Other than Mexicans) caught illegally attempting to cross the border into the U.S.:

42 Iran

42 Iraq

12 Afganistan

70 Somalia

110 Pakistan

7 Syria

22 Yemen

3,000 China

145 Russia

4 North Korea

200,000 from Central and South American countries

This clearly illustrates that problems at the border are a national security issue.  A retired Border Patrol officer in the video states for every apprehension, another 10 people may slip through.

As we prepared to send 1500 military personnel to the southern border (once again) we need to be careful not to hyperfocus -- the northern border has thousands of miles of wilderness and waterways, making it very difficult to control.  Terrorists, money launderers and drug cartel king pins have already attempted to get into the U.S. from Canada.  

Government officials announced yesterday more resources will be allocated to the domestic threat, turning our focus inward. But as we address those pressing issues, we must also remember that a nation is only as secure as its borders. 

___________________________________________

The TV station ran a two part program (3 min clips each) on how they obtained this data with analysis from a few experts. It is worth watching.

 

WSBTV Atlanta Program, Part 1

WSBTV Atlanta Program, Part 2

List of countries and number of apprehensions:

List 1
List 2
List 3
List 4

The Case of Hosam Smadi

Hosam Smadi is only 19 years old, a Jordanian who came to the U.S. on a visitor's visa in 2007 and stayed well past its expiration. He visited extremist websites and radicalized, deciding to blow up a Dallas skyscraper --the 60 story Fountain Place building -- in the name of Jihad.

On September 24, 2009, he parked a truck with an "explosive device" inside, activated the timer, then raced away from the scene with a "friend" in his vehicle so they could watch the explosion from afar. Once they were in position away from the blast site, Smadi used his cell phone to dial a number, believing he would set off the bomb - instead, he called the FBI. The device was a dummy, and the driver of the vehicle an FBI agent posing as an al Qaeda operative.

Smadi has confessed and could easily be in prison the rest of his life for procuring and attempting to use a weapon of mass destruction. However, just days before his trial, he is expected to plead guilty in exchange for a 30 year sentence in court later today. If he receives the reduced sentence, he will be deported after serving 30 years.

Interesting take aways from this case:

- The FBI started monitoring Smadi after they saw his postings on an extremist website last year

- He was living in the small town of Italy, TX and working at a roadside barbecue restaurant

- Arabic-speaking undercover agents developed a rapport with Smadi and tried to dissuade him from violent acts. but he was determined to kill and was looking for targets in downtown Dallas

- The FBI placed him on the Terrorist Watch List so he was unknowingly unable to leave the county; they had a tracking device installed on his vehicle and monitored his cell phone use

- He told agents that he wanted to set off the bomb on September 11th, but decided to wait until Ramadan was over, thus the 24 Sept date

- According to the FBI, he also considered targeting airports, buildings belonging to credit card companies and a military recruitment center

- He decided to bomb the Fountain Place because of its large presence on the Dallas skyline

- His friends were surprised by his arrest - they said he loved techno music, wore earrings, drank and smoked cigarettes – behavior frowned upon by his religion. I am always interested by the dichotomy among the latest batch of would-be terrorists - enjoying all of the things our country has to offer, yet simultaneously wanting to strike out against us in large scale deadly attacks.

Thanks to great work by the FBI, this story ended well and another would-be terrorist is off the streets and behind bars.

(compiled from multiple sources)

The Effects of a Nuclear Detonation in LA: Must See Video for all First Responders

What if the bad guys are somehow able to defeat us and set off a nuclear weapon in downtown LA? Not a dirty bomb, but an actual 10 kiloton nuclear device that results in the stereotypical mushroom cloud over the city.

How should first responders plan for this attack? What are the key actions that should be taken in the first hour, the second hour and beyond? How can we educate our public on what to do in the event of this attack?

This briefing was conducted at the Radiological or Nuclear Incident & Clinical Application Seminar. It is presented by Brooke Buddemeier from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories and Global Security. Buddemeier works with DHS on preparation of cities for a nuclear detonation. He is a Certified Health Physicist and radiation safety specialist.

I think you will agree this is an eye opening presentation. I encourage you to watch it from beginning to end and absorb some critical information we don't often see in the public domain.

Some key points:

Technical:

- A 10 KT detonation gives off the light of 1,000 midday suns at about a mile away and can cause temporary blindness that can last for about 15 seconds or more

- A 10 KT detonation is the equivalent of 5000 Oklahoma City attack truck bombs
- 3 miles out of from the epicenter, glass will break in buildings - 800,000 people in LA affected within this 3 mile circle
- But, it's not all bad news - if you can get to shelter you could survive the fallout and
there is particle decay as time goes by.

Planning:
- There is apathy in planning - most feel that if a nuclear weapon goes off response doesn't matter, we're all casualties, it's every man for himself. Or it is overwhelming to think about first response to such an event, therefore a lack of planning.
- There are no regional response plans for a nuclear detonation
- There is a misunderstanding about local and federal response and responsibilities
- There is a lack of understanding about the technical aspects of a detonation and the right way to respond
- The first hours are critical and doing the right thing could mean saving hundreds of thousands of lives - or, doing the wrong thing could lead to the death of hundreds of thousands

It is hard to wrap our minds around this type of an attack, but we must. The threat exists - al Qaeda has expressed interest in obtaining nuclear material and building a device; Hezbollah's sponsor Iran is a nuclear State; radical Islamist terrorist groups in Pakistan could get access through an attack on a facility, planting a mole, or a from a sympathetic scientist or engineer.

We must continue planning as first responders. How do we communicate when the radios, cellphones and computers go down as a result of an electromagnetic event? Do we rush out to help (first instinct) or shelter, survive, then help? Where are our shelters and is the public aware? Do we practice for this type of event and if so, is it realistic?

We have to better educate our citizens. An educated populace is less fearful and their will to survive a detonation will be much higher armed with some knowledge than just operating from a position of fear. We can't be afraid to have this conversation with our public, they deserve to know and prepare. They shouldn't over rely on the government during times of crisis, as we've seen time and time again in the past.

It strikes me that the generations before us were much more prepared - they knew the location of fallout shelters, for starters. Remember when the bank, the schools, etc in your hometowns had those black and yellow shelter signs? Our parents and grandparents had canned food and water as rations, a radio with batteries, a rallying point and safe area in their homes. There were civil preparedness drills and videos on TV about what to do in the event of a nuclear detonation or related emergency. It was a part of every day life that a nuclear attack was possible - not inevitable, but possible. This is our reality today, as well, although the average person probably gives it no thought at all.

Hope you find this video helpful in your planning efforts at work, in the community and in your home.

http://client.blueskybroadcast.com/Landauer/1282010/landauer09_v10/index.html

Who is Khalid Ouazzani?

Here is another case of a U.S. citizen-turned-al Qaeda sympathizer. He was secretly indicted on 3 Feb, and pleaded guilty in court today to supporting a terrorist organization (al Qaeda). Not much coverage in the news, so so thought I would mention it here.

- Khalid Ouazzani is a 32 year old native of Morocco, who became a naturalized U.S. citizen in 2004

- Was a resident of Kansas City, MO since the 1990s, but also had addresses in Brooklyn, N.Y., Forest Hills, N.Y., and Cherry Hill, N.J.

- Owner of Truman Used Auto Parts in Kansas City

- Obtained a $175,000 bank loan in April 2007 under the guise it would be used for his business; instead used it to buy an apartment in the UAE with a co-conspirator, NFI (felony: bank fraud)

- Sold the apartment and sent funds via his Bank of America account to al Qaeda (felonies: money laundering and material support to a designated terrorist organization)

- Sent other payments to al Qaeda throughout this period from his Bank of America account

- Through conversation with the unnamed co conspirators, discussed various specific ways they could support Al Qaeda, including providing currency, advice and assistance including fighting in Afghanistan, Iraq or Somalia at the group's request

- Could serve 65 years in prison with a $1 million restitution

We tend to front load much effort into the capture and conviction of those colluding with al Qaeda, but in actuality, the hard work hasn't yet begun - that of rehabilitation.

With so many cases of U.S. citizens fund raising, recruiting and attempting to carry out terrorist operations, we need to plan now for their eventual return to society. What will happen to citizens such as Ouzzani, "Jihad Jane", Zazi and Shahzad (to name just a few) when their prison sentences are over? How will we prepare for their return to society? Should there be an assessment similar to that conducted for sex offenders before we let them walk out of prison and back into our neighborhoods?

We need to do some strategic thinking on the rehabilitation issue now while we have these al Qaeda sympathists (and worse) in custody.

Times Square Bomber Was Planning Further Attacks

News channel 5 in NYC has received information from a source inside the investigation of Faisal Shahzad that if the Times Square bombing was a success, he had other targets in mind:

- Rockefeller center
- Grand Central Terminal
- The world financial center (across from Ground Zero)
- Connecticut-based defense contractor Sikorsky

Although the first 3 targets are not a surprise, the fact he wanted to attack Sikorsky should be a wake up call for those who work infrastructure protection issues for defense contractors. Shahzad also performed surveillance at all of these locations, including two Sikorsky plants.

More from the investigation:

- Similar to the Pathfinder used in the Times Square attempt, Shahzad bought a second vehicle with cash on Craig's List - a black Isuzu rodeo

- Shahzad used multiple throw away phones during the planning phase

- The "HIG"--High Value Detainee Investigation Group-- was used to question Shahzad. Recall the HIG (the elite team comprised of FBI, DoD and CIA experts) was not called to Detroit to talk to the Christmas Day bomber, Abdulmutallab. Although the FBI's Detroit office, which has significant experience with terror cases, expertly gathered valuable information leading to arrests in Yemen and the identification of AQ training camps abroad.

- The very year he was naturalized in 2006, Shahzad sent a long e-mail to his friends and family, calling those fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq "infidels" and questioned whether peaceful protest was enough to fight in behalf of those "oppressed". He became increasingly agitated at U.S. policy and became a more strict follower of the Muslim religion. He now says he wants nothing to do with his wife because she is "modernized".

- Shahzad's father-in-law has been arrested. There may be a Colorado connection between Shahzad’s wife, Huma Mian, and Najibullah Zazi, an Afghan national who pleaded guilty to a foiled New York subway attack.

- Officials arrested a Pakistani Army major in connection with this case

So let's not write off Shahzad as a lone actor with poor bomb making skills just yet -- he apparently was a bit more sophisticated and connected than originally thought.

Growing Kidnapping Scam Reaps $$$ For Criminals

You receive a call at home and a man on the other end says "we have your child". You hear muffled screams and crying in the background, maybe even a call for help from a child with the "right" voice - boy or girl, same age group as your child.

The caller wants you to drop money somewhere, or give him a credit card number on the phone and he will let your child go. Common sense tells you not to do it, but emotions take over - until you can locate your child and make sure he/she is safe, you don't want to let the kidnapper hang up. Maybe they won't call back. You'll do anything to secure the safety of your child and seconds are passing by.

Terrifying, isn't it? It may surprise you to learn that in Mexico, this practice has been going on for at least 9 years and 12,000 of these calls are placed every day, usually from untraceable, unregistered "throw away" cell phones.

And officials estimate that 20 million Mexican citizens have fallen prey, giving money or financial information to the "kidnappers".

Instead of trying to disincentivize the criminals who perpetrate the crime, Mexico is trying to get the situation under control by making the 100 million "throwaway" cell phone users register their phone or face service cut off. Although 65 million phones have been registered, there are two emerging problems with this solution: they are registering under phony names (thousands under pop stars, and even the President) and the registration lists are being sold to the criminal organizations, which will lead to even more "virtual kidnappings". Innocent people are being dragged into investigations because the criminals used their personal data to register a cell phone. The database is causing real headaches for Mexico - it is huge, ever-changing and costly.

We could easily see this fund raising tactic used here at home by terrorist groups, gangs or just common criminals. Now is a good time to educate our citizens so they don't fall prey while under emotional distress of a "virtual" kidnapping.

New Recruitment Video From Al Shabaab Seemingly Targets Americans

U.S. citizen Omar Hammami left the United States for Somalia in 2006. He quickly rose through the ranks and now leads al Shabaab, which recently declared its official alignment as an arm of al Qaeda. Growing in size and strength, Shabaab now controls a large part of the Somalia and is possibly exacting proceeds from pirating in the Horn of Africa. They are global and have already recruited U.S. citizens (young men) to fly to Somalia and participate in suicide bombings.

Hammami is now known as Abu Mansour al Amriki, and he joined with several other Shabaab members to create this recruitment video. I think you will agree the music is almost mesmerizing and the message clear and compelling. As we continue to study how the jihad switch gets turned from "off" to "on" in the human brain, these videos provide insight into how the enemy is tapping into certain messages and themes to persuade and encode. Clearly, the use of rap in this video is a marketing tool to target demographically.

Before you click on the video, be advised that it will take you to the YouTube website. It may surprise you to know there are jihad forums on YouTube including producer of this video, AQWAH productions, which has 70 videos on their "channel". When you go to this link, you will see more of their videos on the right side of the page. It is also interesting to read the comments of viewers, some obviously American and pro-jihad. You will also see a link to a radical Islamist site, one that has been repeatedly targeted by patriot hacker known as "The Jester" or th3j35t3r.

Al Shabaab Video

Some of the videos on Jihadist channels are disturbing with footage of American casualties. Obviously there is a fine line between freedom of speech and inciting, hateful speech. Our fellow citizens are heavily engaged in policing YouTube. Operaton YouTube Smackdown specifically works to have jihadist videos removed and have taken down over 10,000 videos to date. See their site for more info on how you can flag objectionable videos for review by the host. Note that it is illegal for any U.S. corporation to provide material support to known terrorist groups.

Just a side note, AQWAH productions also has a Facebook page. Remember not to underestimate the sophistication of these groups - if we use it, they use it.

If you don't want to go to the YouTube site, please visit Bill Roggio's fantastic article on this subject, with the video embedded, at the Long War Journal.

Major Gang Takedown in Upstate NY: 78 Bloods, Latin Kings Indicted

We had a reminder today: deadly street gangs are still around, growing in number and a threat to the stability of our communities and the fabric of our nation.

(hand sign of the Bloods gang)

I also believe gangs are a threat to our national security - they bring instability to our country, add a burden our over tasked/under resourced law enforcement personnel, and possibly divert resources from terrorism related issues. They step up to law enforcement instead of backing away and have a blatant disregard for the law. They now number 1 million members and are engaged in every type of major criminal activity - and they are not just in our big cities anymore.

About 70 miles north of NYC is the town of Newburgh, NY, population 29,o00 - the scene of today's early morning raid by 600 local, state and federal law enforcement officers. This take down culminated the 18 month FBI-led Safe Streets Task Force investigation in which agents made over 100 drug buys that exceeded 5 kilos of cocaine. Newburgh has a rich history - it was visited by Henry Hudson in 1609, and citizens recently restored the waterfront on the Hudson River which now has restaurants and shopping. Despite their efforts, Newburgh remained one of the state's worst cities in terms of crime; two years ago, Newburgh led the state of New York in per capita homicides, most fueled by the drug trade.

Let's hope tonight the people of Newburgh are resting a bit easier as a result of this tremendous effort to rid their town of crime.


Gangs at a Glance

- Approximately one million gang members belonging to more than 20,000 gangs were criminally active within all 50 states and DC in 2008

- Gang members are migrating from urban to suburban areas

- Crminial gangs commit as much as 80 percent of crime in many communities

- The Bloods were formed in the 1970s in LA, they now have a membership of 30,000

- The Latin Kings were formed in Chicago in the 1960s, they now have a population of 20-30,000


Source: National Gang Threat Assessment.

Pakistani Taliban May Be Designated Terror Group by the State Dept

State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said today the U.S. already was considering designating Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP, a "foreign terrorist organization" before the May 1 incident in New York, but in light of the Times Square incident, they were accelerating the process. By my count, that means telling Congress tomorrow, and then in 7 days, making it official. But we'll see how long the diplomatic wrangling takes. See my 4 May blog on the designation process and why the Taliban should be on the list.

It would actually be nice to designate groups that want to do us harm us before they try to carry out an actual bombing of a major metropolitan area, but this is progress in the right direction.

Now that Taliban has risen to the top of the list, I continue my crusade to have the Los Zetas paramilitary drug cartel from Mexico added to the list...before they arrive in Phoenix, El Paso or Dallas and carry out their standard beheadings, acid baths, hanging in effigy or dismemberment of our mayors and law enforcement personnel. They are a direct threat to our national security, and they are coming - let's get out ahead of this one.

Global Terrorism Data Base Worth a Look; NYC Analysis

The National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) at the University of Maryland produces an outstanding data base with info on 80,000 terrorist incidents between 1970 and 2007. The program will be updated later this month to include 2008 events. You can search this database by country, perpetrator, weapon, and target.
START DATABASE

CNN recently used START information to analyze attacks in New York City. Data of interest:

- 284 terrorist attacks took place in the city between 1970 and 2007, with almost three-fourths of these attacks occurring in the 1970s

- 2813 individuals were killed, with 98% of those fatalities occurring as a result of the dual attacks on the World Trade Center on 9/11. Prior to 911, the deadliest attack involved a bombing at LaGuardia Airport in 1975, resulting in 11 deaths

- 4000 people were injured in NYC terrorist attacks between 1970-2007

- NYC has been, by far, the most common target location of terrorists in the United States

-- 1347 total terrorist attacks in the US from 1970-2007, more in NYC than in the next 4 most frequently targeted U.S. cities combined (Miami, 70 attacks; San Francisco, 66 attacks; Washington, DC, 59 attacks; and Los Angeles, 54 attacks)

- Al Qaeda launched the deadliest attacks, but almost 40 other identified groups engaged in terrorism in NYC from 1970 to 2007 -- a range of different ideologies, backgrounds, and goals, with changing actors over time

-- In the 1970s, the most active perpetrators of terrorism in NYC were Fuerzas Armadas de Liberacion Nacional (FALN), a Puerto Rican separatist group, responsible for 40 NYC attacks. The Jewish Defense League (JDL), which engaged in attacks against targets it perceived to be anti-Semitic, launched 27 attacks. And, both the Independent Armed Revolutionary Commandos (CRIA), another Puerto Rican separatist group, and Omega-7, an anti-Castro Cuban organization, each were responsible for 16 attacks

- Most common target-- businesses (36%); government offices (19%); non-governmental organizations (11%)

- Primary weapon (used in 70% of attacks) bombs/explosives; incendiaries/arson/fire (18%); firearms (10%) relied upon firearms as the primary weapon.

- Among the 195 bomb/explosive attacks, 58 were an improvised explosive device (IED)

- VBIED attacks in NYC:
-- 1993 attack by Ramzi Yousef on the World Trade Center (Ryder rental truck w/ 1500 pounds of fertilizer)
-- 1973, the Palestinian organization Black September ( known for its attack on the 1972 Munich Olympic games) launched 3 VBIED attacks, targeting Israeli-owned businesses and the El Al terminal at John F. Kennedy Airport
-- 1978, the New Jewish Defense League attacked an Egyptian governmental office in New York using a car bomb
-- 1979, Omega-7 employed a VBIED against TWA offices at Kennedy Airport

Hope you find the GTDB useful in your analysis of the threat in your area of responsibility.

Radical Cleric Awlaki Influenced Times Square Would-Be Bomber

He met with and inspired the 9/11 hijackers at a mosque in Northern Virginia.

He inspired and encouraged Nidal Hassan to kill at Ft Hood through 18 e-mails sent from abroad.

He met Christmas Day airline terrorist Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab at his al Qaeda training camp in Yemen.

And now we learn from investigators he inspired and encouraged Faisal Shahzad to bomb Times Square.

He is radical Islamist cleric Anwar al-Awlaki, a naturalized U.S. citizen from Yemen, . A few months ago, the President authorized the killing of Mr. Awlaki, making him the first American citizen on the CIA's hit list and it's time we find it an put an end to his rhetoric that is incited jihad against America.

Who is Awlaki? Recall the Dar al-Hijrah Islamic Center in Falls Church, Virginia, which was a place of worship for several of the 9/11 hijackers. According to the 9/11 commission report, Awlaki had personal contact with 2 of the hijackers, both at the mosque in VA, and at a mosque in San Diego.

At Dar al-Hijrah, Awlaki also preached to Ft Hood killer Hasan and his family, notably around the early 2001 time period. The two may have maintained contact throughout the years, and investigators are looking at Hasan's e-mail accounts for the evidence. Awlaki praised Hasan's actions, calling him a "hero" and using his first name several times, indicating familiarity.

Awlaki was born in Yemen, but moved to the U.S. as a teenager and was formally educated here. He has a B.S. (Civil Engineering) from Colorado State University, an M.A. (Education Leadership) from San Diego State University, and worked toward on a PhD at George Washington University. He now lives in Yemen. A few months ago, he attempted to enter the UK to speak at a fundraiser for the prisoners at Guantanamo but was banned from the county.

His most recent website is no longer accessible, but I was previously able to access and read his works. There were many of Awlaki's radical speeches, some of which had been accessed thousands of times. A common theme was his distinct respect for Sayyid Qutb, who was also Osama bin Laden's inspiration.

Qutb was educated in the U.S. (in Colorado and DC) in the 1950s. While here, he came to hate the Western culture and returned to Egypt. He radicalized and influenced many others to take up the cause of Jihad. He was imprisoned and later executed by hanging when found guilty of trying to overthrow the government. His book entitled "Milestones" was written in prison, and has served as a source of radicalization and inspiration for many Islamist terrorists including Zawahiri. It is worthy of reading as we try to understand the roots of the radical ideology. Military strategist Sun Tzu's philosophy of "know thy enemy" has perhaps never been more relevant than today. I also recommend The Looming Tower by Lawrence Wright, which explores Qutb and his influence on bin Laden.

If you want to read more of Awlaki's writings and the comments of his followers, I located his 2008 blogs through an internet search engine that finds archived web sites:

http://web.archive.org/web/*/http://www.anwar-alawlaki.com

Hopefully our people on the ground in Yemen can somehow trace Awlaki's activity and put an end to his influence in this battle against the radical ideology. He may not be the trigger puller, but he too is a terrorist - perhaps of the worst kind.

Times Square Terrorist Did Dry Run

Faisal Shahzad went to Times Square the evening before his unsuccessful bombing attempt - he drove around the area where he would eventually leave the Nissan SUV laden with explosive material. He also left an Isuzu near the scene to use as a get away vehicle the next day.

The day of his unsuccessful attempt was a string of blunders. He didn't open the valves on the propane tanks, he used the wrong kind of fertilizer and the firecrackers were not a good fuse source. Also, he left his keys in the ignition of the Nissan SUV. The keys included the one to the get away Isuzu and a key to his apartment in Connecticut. He had to take a train home to Connecticut that night - returned to the city on Sunday with a different set of keys to get the Isuzu, and then later used it to drive to JFK Monday evening for his flight to Dubai.

Another interesting note: when he drove his vehicle bomb into New York City on Saturday, Shahzad stopped in front of the UN, opened the trunk and "activated" the device, then continued driving to Times Square. Authorities have said that Times Square was his target -- but just think if the conditions were right and the vehicle exploded in front of the UN, killing Shahzad and destroying most of the evidence that led to his capture. Perhaps other nations would join the fight with us against the Taliban and take the attack as a personal affront. Right now, The U.S. seems to be alone in terms of concern about this near miss and an emboldened Taliban that is saber rattling like never before.

Similar to the events of Christmas Day, we were lucky. The terrorist didn't build the bomb correctly. He left a mountain of evidence in his wake. An alert vendor did the right thing by getting involved preventing what could have ultimately been a vehicle fire that led to an explosion of the tanks from extreme heat. Despite some serious information sharing gaps and problems with tracking the suspect's whereabouts, we were able to stop the aircraft and get Shahzad before he made it to another country -- which may have resulted in diplomatic wrangling and perhaps made the suspect less willing to talk and harder to interrogate.

"Better lucky than good" is not a phrase to apply in the counter terror realm. We must study the events of the last 4 days --what went right and what went terribly wrong. The enemy surely is.

The Taliban: Time to Make it a Designated Terror Group

As naturalized American citizen Faisal Shahzad awaits his hearing today on terror charges related to the Times Square bombing attempt, it is time for our government to take action and officially designate the Taliban as a terrorist group. No longer just fund raisers for al Qaeda and insurgents battling forces in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the group is now directly threatening our national security. Whether Shahzad was acting in behalf of the Taliban or not, the group's direct threats to our homeland over the last few days has absolutely elevated their status to that of a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO).

There are 45 FTOs on the State Department's list - ranging from the obvious, al Qaeda, to the not so obvious like Lashkar i Jhangvi. The designation process works like this: Sec State, in coordination with the Attorney General and the Treasury Dept, identifies a group for designation and sends those intentions to the Hill. Congress has 7 days to review and object. After the 7 day period expires, if Congress has not objected, this signals their concurrence with the action and the group is officially designated. FTOs can appeal this designation, and are reviewed every 2 years for decision as to whether to leave them on the list.

Legal Criteria for Designation

1. It must be a foreign organization.
2. The organization must engage in terrorist activity, or terrorism, or retain the capability and intent to engage in terrorist activity or terrorism.
3. The organization’s terrorist activity or terrorism must threaten the security of U.S. nationals or the national security (national defense, foreign relations, or the economic interests) of the United States.

Legal Ramifications of Designation

1. It is unlawful for a person in the United States to knowingly provide "material support or resources" to a designated FTO. This includes any property, tangible or intangible, or service, including currency or monetary instruments or financial securities, financial services, lodging, training, expert advice or assistance, safehouses, false documentation or identification, communications equipment, facilities, weapons, lethal substances, explosives, personnel.
   
2. Representatives and members of a designated FTO, if they are aliens, are inadmissible to and, in certain circumstances, removable from the United States.
3. Financial institutions must report any holding of FTO assets to the government or face legal ramifications.
   

Designating the Taliban would have these immediate positive effects:

- Assist in the prosecution of terror cases related to the group; ability to hammer those in the U.S. who give material support to the Taliban or its terrorists

- Stigmatizes and isolates the group; in this case, extracts them from al Qaeda, puts focus on the group and its activities

- Deters donations or contributions to and economic transactions with the Taliban from private citizens, religious groups, etc.

- Signals to other governments our concern about the Taliban; opens the door for economic and other sanctions to countries that allow the group to operate within its borders

I've spoken with officials before about designation of Los Zetas, a paramilitary drug cartel that is perched on our border and will certainly threaten our national security in the coming years. The answer is that it is very difficult and long process, with much diplomatic wrangling with the host country. In the case of the Taliban, the countries involved could either agree to the designation or just live with our decision to designate. Our national security is at stake and it's time to play hardball with these groups that threaten and terrorize our citizens.

Who is this Man?

And my question - is he really a suspect? If you had a smoking time bomb just feet away, would you take off your sweater? With your back to the vehicle, facing windows? Wouldn't human nature cause you to stare at the vehicle in case something happens? It just seems a little odd to me, although the video does show him glancing back furtively at the SUV, or maybe at our hero vendor. I understand he is a person of interest since he was so close to the scene, just think that the public will hyperfocus on him when we in fact need them to keep an open mind and recall anything strange at the location or in the key towns related to this investigation.

The investigation continues and here are some updates gleaned from several open source sites:

- The SUV was sold on Craig's List 3 weeks ago: the last registered owner of the 1993 Nissan Pathfinder said he recently sold the SUV on Craigs List for cash to man who appeared to be Middle Eastern or Hispanic. Sources told CBS the buyer paid $1,300 cash, with $100 bills. Sources tell CNN that it sold for $1,800 and that the transaction happened at a Connecticut shopping mall. The buyer drove off with the vehicle.

- The UK press is reporting a tourist has video of a man running from the scene, and he is definitely not the man in the photo.

- The target of the attack may have been the producers of South Park, a television show which recently was under fire for a depiction of the Prophet Mohammad. The SUV was parked near Viacom studios.

- The New York mayor has come to the conclusion that this was not an act perpetrated by al Qaeda. Here is the link to his comments, being carried in Canadian papers. Unless we have someone in custody, I am not quite sure how he reached his conclusion. Understandably, he wants to put the minds of New Yorkers and tourists at rest, but jumping to a conclusion is probably not a great idea.

- NPR is reporting a "foreign connection" to the bombing, not elaborating. Other sources say evidence collected from inside the vehicle point to an overseas connection.

- The Bridgeport, Connecticut area appears to be the source of the license plate, procured from an auto parts store. Bridgeport has been under scrutiny since 9/11 - 4 of the hijackers stayed for four days at the Fairfield Motor Inn, according to the 9/11 congressional report. They met with a Jordanian man who lived in Bridgeport and was charged with providing false identification for at least 50 undocumented immigrants. The DMV in Bridgeport was the center of an illegal licensing operation.

- The Pakistani Taliban continues to take credit and threatens further attacks in the U.S. If they think attacks and threats will cause the American public to push our government for withdrawal, I believe they are mistaken. In fact, this may further deepen our commitment to the fight in Afghanistan.

Something to consider - one of my astute students mentioned that he believes this was not a domestic terrorist act, solely based on the lack of a typical target such as a government building. The event was meant to cause mass death and destruction, and inflict fear - the sign of an international terrorist group such as al Qaeda.

As the New York mayor rules out al Qaeda, law enforcement officials have issued their own statements that "nothing is off the table" as they try desperately to put the puzzle together and apprehend a terrorist, who is still wandering freely in our country tonight.

Times Square Bomb: Domestic Terror or al Qaeda?

On a Saturday evening, Times Square is filled with thousands of shoppers, diners and theater goers. Perfect target for a terrorist. Thankfully, an alert tee shirt salesman noticed the Nissan Pathfinder, engines running, hazard lights on, and smoke pouring out of the back seat. The Vietnam vet alerted a policeman on horseback, whose trained nose detected the scent of gunpowder. This led to the evacuation of area and disabling of the device. The vehicle is being searched and one report indicates that fingerprints were lifted. Video cameras caught the vehicle being parked and possibly will lead to a photo of of the driver, who is rumored to have run from the scene. As the arduous task for law enforcement begins, the rest of us are left again with an uneasy feeling about our security and those among us who want to cause large scale death and destruction.

Was this as an act of domestic terror? Possibly. There was only one device, not the standard al Qaeda hallmark of simultaneous attacks. It was crudely made (although under the right conditions, could have been catastrophically successful). The VIN # was partially scratched and the vehicle had stolen plates.

It doesn't appear to be work of a jihadist with an apocalyptic view of the world, who wants to die in a blaze of glory while killing others. They don't scratch VINs or steal plates to cover their tracks. Similar to Timothy McVeigh, the attacker didn't want to die, but wanted live to see the results of the bomb. McVeigh wasn't savvy enough to scratch the VIN and other identifying details off the vehicle, which is what ultimately connected him to the bombing. But terrorists do read the news, like the rest of us. They study past events and refine their plan based on failures.

However, al Qaeda and its sympathizers have used propane in past attacks and there may still be videos on jihadist sites with instructions on how to rig this exact type of device. This bomb reminds me of the one used to attack the airport terminal in Glasgow - located in a Jeep, it also contained propane and gas. Of course the two men in the vehicle who drove it into the terminal building, British citizens who were also radical Islamists, planned to die in the bombing -- however the passenger, a physician, lived and is serving 32 years in a British prison. In all, 8 people were arrested in connection with this attack. The group was a terrorist cell with connections to others in Australia and Europe, but they appeared to devise the plan and construct the device themselves, without training, logistical support or direction from al Qaeda.

In addition to the Glasgow attack, the following bombs included the use of propane:

2007: Multiple car bomb attacks in Iraq by AQI

2007: The theater district in London - police discovered two empty Mercedes loaded with nails packed around canisters of propane and gasoline, no arrests made, al Qaeda suspected.

1983: U.S. Marines barracks bombing that killed 241 (Hezbollah responsible)

Whether we have a domestic terrorist or radical jihadist free today and roaming our streets, planning his/her next operation, one thing is certain: America remains under attack.

And similar to the Christmas Day airliner bombing attempt, despite billions of dollars of technology, and tens of thousands of people dedicated to stop attacks - it came down to an average citizen who chose to get involved and did the right thing.